The Numerai community forum engagement has dropped over the past few weeks, and that raises the question of whether the tournament is bleeding participants. After looking through the entry and exits of stakers in the tournament since the Kazutsugi changes (Round 168 to Round 178), the answer is no. There are rotations -- old stakers leaving and new stakers coming. I conclude this from the following data points:
- Of the 184 stakers from Round 168, 70 of them no longer stake by Round Round 178.
- The drop off from Round 168 to Round 169 is 36 stakers leaving. From Round 170 onward: 38, 42, 61, 72, 72, 72, 69, 70, 70.
- Of the 186 stakers in Round 169, 38 are new stakers.
- Of the 169 stakers in Round 178, 55 are new stakers that weren't staking in Round 168.
You can find the data I use here. If you can't figure out what I'm doing with my formulas, the raw data is in sheet 1 and 2 and you can explore the data on your own.