Update 20200404. This has been inserted into the numerai documentation (link) since my post. If I understand this right, the leaderboard bonus is now capped at 250NMR for all models... and that's a very low payout considering that the daily payment is expected to average close to 0NMR for each model over the long run. I haven't had time to go over the new payout changes related to MMC though.
"Like payouts, bonuses are paid into your stake balance. The max bonus paid out per day is250 NMRacross all models. If the total bonus amount exceeds this, then all bonuses will be paid pro rata."
We are a bit over a week away from Numerai finally having to pay the bonus leaderboard bonus under the new system. So how much is Numerai projected to pay out over the coming weeks? One issue with the current system is that it has exponential growth build in, and I wonder if the payout is sustainable.
Going into any of the stakers, say the current leader Madmin, you will see the black bar indicating the past 100 days that the leaderboard bonus is based on. The leaderboard bonus is discussed here (link), and pays some percent of the stake 100 days ago to the top 300 stakers.
Without any cap, I projected that the payout will be 439,859NMR over the next 26 weeks based on a few simplifying assumptions. The rate on exchanges for NMR has jumped recently from $5ish to $8ish, so using the more conservative rate of $5=1NMR, that's over $2mil. The graph below shows the estimated payout. To get my projection, I fix the leaderboard's position right now, and assume everyone leaves the stake as is (no adding or subtracting). The google workbook showing the calculations and assumptions is here (link); the summary data is in the "Leaderboard related payout" worksheet.
There is a weekly payout cap that I assume applies to both the daily staking payout and the leaderboard payout. From the Numerai documentation:
The weekly payout in NMR (see the google sheet) is 58,766.95NMR. So Numerai intends to payout these amounts. Even including the staking payout, we are likely to be under the 100k NMR cap at week 26."At the beginning of each Thursday, up to100K NMRin stakes will be selected and eligible for payouts. If the total amount staked exceeds this, then all stakes will be selected pro rata."
The total staking payout, from the 350 entries in the google sheet, is 1722.46NMR. That's an underestimate since I'm ignoring the other 700 plus entries but the lower ranks on average also have lower stakes. 1722.46NMR a day implies 8612.3NMR a week.
Is payout out $2mil over 26 weeks a lot for Numerai? The answer is no based on the cap. But with exponential growth, the cap will be reached within 52 weeks. There were past talks in the forum that the cap will be adjusted upward as we approach it. I am a bit skeptical but would love to be surprised. Coming up with the NMR is not an issue since Numerai has many times more NMR than that. I would think, though, that the US$ value of the NMR will fall with the exponential increase in supply over the horizon.